What’s The Points – Hungary Update II

In What’s The Points? – Hungary Update, I calculated how many points the title-contenders had scored in the last five events, divided by five for the mean, multiplied this average by the seven remaining races, and added this product to the points the drivers have (rounded to the nearest point), to give an approximate ‘Championship prediction. This was the result.

1   Hamilton   259
2   Vettel   253
3   Webber   242
4   Button   230
5   Alonso   228
6   Massa   139

I was interested what this process would predict for the 10-6-4-3-2-1 scoring system. Since I worked it out for myself, I figured I may as well blog it. These are the totals and averages for the last five races.

   Driver Score    Average
1   Hamilton    26      5·2   
2   Webber   23   4·6   
3   Vettel   21   4·2   
4   Alonso   20   4·8   
5   Button   15   3·6   
6   Massa   9   1·8   

Then adding the averages multiplied by seven, rounded to the nearest point, to what the drivers would have after Hungary under 10-6-4-3-2-1 gives this.

1   Hamilton   85
2   Webber   85
3   Vettel   74
4   Alonso   71
5   Button   64
6   Massa   36

I was not sure if I should put Hamilton or Webber first, as with four wins so far against two for Lewis, Mark would be ahead on countback, but not rounding to the nearest point, Hamilton had 85·4 to Webber’s 85·2.

As I have made clear before on this web-log, I believe the points used in F1 should have more emphasis on outright results (I would introduce 20-12-8-6-4-3-2-1 as argued here). This would certainly suit Webber with his extra wins but mixed form. Vettel’s early reliability issues taking away probable wins would be more significant. Hamilton’s sheer consistency this season might be enough under either the old or new system.

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