What’s The Points – Korea Update

Previous entries:

    What’s The Points
    What’s The Points – China Update
    What’s The Points – Spain Update
    What’s The Points – Monaco Update
    What’s The Points – Turkey Update
    What’s The Points – Canada Update
    What’s The Points – Valencia Update
    What’s The Points – Great Britain Update
    What’s The Points – Germany Update
    What’s The Points – Hungary Update
    What’s The Points – Belgium Update
    What’s The Points – Italy Update
    What’s The Points – Singapore Update
    What’s The Points – Japan Update

Below is a comparison of the World Championship positions for this year’s points (left), last year’s points-system (middle) and the older 10-6-4-3-2-1 approach (right). Ties are decided by count-back.

1		Alonso		231		Alonso		93		Alonso		77
2		Webber		220		Webber		88		Webber		70
3		Hamilton		210		Hamilton		87		Hamilton		65
4		Vettel		206		Vettel		84		Vettel		64
5		Button		189		Button		77		Button		55
6		Massa		143		Massa		57		Massa		36
7		Kubica		124		Kubica		48		Kubica		24
8		Rosberg		122		Rosberg		47		Rosberg		24
9		Schumacher		66		Schumacher		23		Schumacher		11
10		Barrichello		47		Barrichello		15		Barrichello		6

A horrific race for RBR, with their first double-no-score of the season. With an eleven point lead, things look good for Alonso. If the Korea result were to be repeated in Brazil, Fernando would be World Champion. If Webber can win the remaining two races, that would put him on 270 which Alonso could not beat even if he finished second in both. As well as Alonso moving above Webber and Hamilton moving above Vettel, Kubica takes a place off non-finishing Rosberg in all three systems.

With all the top contenders having had such up-and-down seasons, it is not so surprising the top places are the same in all three systems, it was always unlikely that which of these points-regimes used would change the eventual ‘Champion, but for all three top-tens to be identical in order is unexpected. By this year’s points, Fernando’s lead over Webber is 44% of a race-win, last year’s points, 50% of a race-win, and 10-6-4-3-2-1, 70% of a race-win. Under the latter system, Button would be mathematically out of the chase.

Nineteen drivers have scored points in this year’s ‘Championship (all the drivers except those for the new-teams) , eighteen under 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 (Alguersuari is yet to finish top-eight). Liuzzi’s sixth-place brings up to fifteen those that have finished top-six this season.

This is the order purely on count-back.

		Wins	Seconds	Thirds	Podiums
1	Alonso	5	2	2	9
2	Webber	4	3	2	9
3	Hamilton	3	4	1	8
4	Vettel	3	2	3	8
5	Button	2	3	1	6
6	Massa		2	3	5
7	Kubica		1	2	3
8	Rosberg			3	3

Pure count-back gives exactly the same top-eight order as the points, with the number of podiums still looking like the biggest title-factor.

The next table shows the points scored by the World Championship contenders over the last five events.

	Driver	Score		Average
1	Alonso	90		18·8
2	Webber	59		11·8
3	Vettel	55		11·4
4	Hamilton	53		10·6

If these mean averages of recent performances are multiplied by the three remaining races, added to the points the drivers currently have, and rounded to the nearest point, it gives this projection of the final tally.

1	Alonso	267
2	Webber	244
3	Hamilton	231
4	Vettel	228

With only two races left, the value of this indicator is very limited. The title will probably go to the highest placed driver that puts in two strong finishes in the last two rounds.

Alonso has won three of the last five races, plus a third and a DNF at Belgium. It seems very much his title to lose. Hamilton has always looked off his best in Brazil, and the long flat-out stretch will not suit Red Bull, so it should be another good weekend for the Spaniard.

These are the points if given to engines:

	Engine	Score		Average per Team
1	Mercedes	655		218·3
2	Renault	569		284·5
3	Ferrari	428		142·7
4	Cosworth	65		16·3

Ferrari took a 1-3 with both Saubers in the points to take 46 points. Mercedes had Hamilton, Schumacher, and Liuzzi in second, fourth, and sixth, for 38 points. Renault only got ten for Kubica’s fifth-place. Cosworth had both Williams in the points for 7.

The scores by nationality of drivers are:

	Nation	Points	Scoring Drivers
1	Germany	465	6
2	Britain	399	2
3	Spain	240	3
4	Australia	220	1
5	Brazil	190	2
6	Poland	124	1
7	Japan	31	1
8	Italy	21	1
9	Russia	19	1
10	Switzerland	8	1

The win for Spain was enough to win the week and take third off Australia. Webber has to defend his country unaided, but Alonso can not expect much help off Alguersuari, or any more from de la Rosa. Massa and Barrichello gave Brazil 21. Hamilton gave GB 18. Sans Vettel, the German hoards still took 4th, 9th, and 10th for 15. Poland got 10. Liuzzi’s sixth-place gave eight to over-take Russia for eighth. Kobayashi added four for the Land of the Rising Sun.

This is the Nations’ Cup only counting the score of the highest driver in a race for each country. I have also decided to use 10-6-4-3-2-1, partly because I think it a better scoring regime, partly because it meant less work. Thus, for example, the McLaren 1-2 in China would give Britain 10 points for the win, nothing for second, and Rosberg’s third place would give Germany 4 points, with nothing for Vettel’s sixth place.

	Nation	Points
1	Britain	94
2	Germany	80
3	Spain	77
4	Australia	70
5	Brazil	42
6	Poland	24
7	Russia	2
8	Japan	1
9	Italy	1

Alonso’s win with Webber’s DNF sees Spain move up to third. It was with Monaco the second race this season to have the top-six feature six different nations. Liuzzi gave Italy its first point, remaining behind Japan on count-back.

This next table shows the standings based on qualification using current points.

1	Vettel	341
2	Webber	311
3	Alonso	207
4	Hamilton	192
5	Button	134
6	Massa	132
7	Rosberg	119
8	Kubica	116
9	Schumacher	48
10	Barrichello	44
11	Hülkenberg	24
12	Sutil	21
13	Liuzzi	10
14	Petrov	9
15	Kobayashi	5
16	de la Rosa	4

Little change in the status quo. Rosberg’s strong fifth did enable him to climb one position pushing Kubica down a place, the Pole disappointed to only qualify eighth after his car had developed a handling issue since FP3.

These are the fastest-lap points with the number of outright fastest laps in brackets.

1	Webber	247	(3)
2	Alonso	224	(5)
3	Vettel	216	(3)
4	Hamilton	181	(3)
5	Kubica	128	(1)
6	Button	124	(1)
7	Massa	122
8	Rosberg	95
9	Schumacher	72
10	Petrov	59	(1)
11	Barrichello	54
12	Sutil	44
13	Buemi	42
14	Alguersuari	39
15	Liuzzi	26
16	Kobayashi	19
17	Hülkenberg	15
18	de la Rosa	9
19	Heidfeld	1

The top-five in this discipline in Korea were Alonso, Vettel, Hamilton, Massa, Liuzzi. Kubica came seventh, Button outside the top-ten, promoting the Pole to fifth. Liuzzi’s good showing took him past Kobayashi to 15th.

Click here to see my Google documents laps-and-distance-completed spreadsheet.

See also RG’s Korea update for his championship for new teams.