What's The Points - Singapore Update

Previous entries:

    What’s The Points
    What’s The Points – China Update
    What’s The Points – Spain Update
    What’s The Points – Monaco Update
    What’s The Points – Turkey Update
    What’s The Points – Canada Update
    What’s The Points – Valencia Update
    What’s The Points – Great Britain Update
    What’s The Points – Germany Update
    What’s The Points – Hungary Update
    What’s The Points – Belgium Update
    What’s The Points – Italy Update

Below is a comparison of the World Championship positions for this year’s points (left), last year’s points-system (middle) and the older 10-6-4-3-2-1 approach (right). Ties are decided by countback.

1		Webber		202		Webber		80		Webber		64
2		Alonso		191		Alonso		77		Alonso		63
3		Hamilton		182		Hamilton		75		Hamilton		59
4		Vettel		181		Vettel		74		Vettel		54
5		Button		177		Button		72		Button		52
6		Massa		128		Massa		51		Massa		30
7		Rosberg		122		Rosberg		47		Rosberg		24
8		Kubica		114		Kubica		44		Kubica		22
9		Sutil		47		Schumacher		15		Schumacher		7
10		Schumacher		46		Sutil		15		Barrichello		6

Double-ouch for Lewis Hamilton with now two-races-in-a-row without troubling the scorers. Fernando Alonso, with another win, has taken fifty points in two races over his former British team-mate. Mark Webber just keeps adding to his tally with his sixth straight top-six finish, including four podiums. Massa needs to pick up or fall back into the clutches of Rosberg and Kubica.

The order in the three systems is boringly identical down to eighth-place, which, I supose, especially with such an up-and-down season for all the top drivers, becomes more inevitable as the season progresses. Hamilton loses the lead he held last time under last season’s points, in the other two systems losing second, to drop to third in all three. Vettel jumps Button to fourth in all three.

Uncle Bernie’s medal system involves giving the title to the driver with the most wins, with points settling the title if two or more drivers are tied on wins. Something suggested more than once in the past is a pure count-back system, which would give this order.

		Wins	Seconds	Thirds	Podiums
1	Webber	4	2	2	8
2	Alonso	4	2	1	7
3	Hamilton	3	3	1	7
4	Button	2	3	1	6
5	Vettel	2	2	3	7
6	Massa		2	2	4
7	Kubica		1	2	3
8	Rosberg			3	3

Pure count-back promotes Button to fourth over Vettel, and Kubica past Rosberg to seventh. What is interesting is to look at this table in the order of the real points-standings.

		Wins	Seconds	Thirds	Podiums
1	Webber	4	2	2	8
2	Alonso	4	2	1	7
3	Hamilton	3	3	1	7
4	Vettel	2	2	3	7
5	Button	2	3	1	6
6	Massa		2	2	4
7	Rosberg			3	3
8	Kubica		1	2	3

Webber leads the table with an average of 13·5 (rounded) points per race, with 15 for 3rd and 12 for 4th. The pattern of this ‘Championship seems to be that he who takes the most podiums will win.

The next table shows the points scored by the World Championship contenders over the last five events.

	Driver	Score		Average
1	Alonso	93		18·6
2	Webber	74		14·8
3	Vettel	60		12·4
4	Button	44		8·8
5	Hamilton	37		7·4

If these mean averages of recent performances are multiplied by the four remaining races, added to the points the drivers currently have, and rounded to the nearest point, it gives this projection of the final tally. Ties take into consideration the unrounded figures. The scores in brackets are on the basis of the Korean GP being cancelled.

1	Alonso	265	(247)
2	Webber	261	(246)
3	Vettel	229	(217)
4	Button	212	(203)
5	Hamilton	212	(204)

I think I can kiss the winnings of my bet on Hamilton to win the title goodbye. Also, I need to eat humble pie about deriding Alonso’s proclamations about still having a good shot at the ‘Championship a few races back. Fernando has won three of the last five races, plus a second and a non-finish. Hamilton has three non-points results in the last five, and McLaren have not had both cars in the points since Germany. I do not think Lewis will do as badly in the last few races as recently, or that Alonso will do as well, with Webber looking tentative favourite in my tarnished opinion.

These are the points if given to engines:

	Engine	Score		Average per Team
1	Mercedes	587		195·7
2	Renault	516		258·5
3	Ferrari	356		118·7
4	Cosworth	56		14·8

Despite the win, Ferrari only got their own cars into the points for 29, whilst Renault, with two podiums plus Kubica in 7th, made 39. Mercedes scored 24 with Button, Rosberg and Sutil contributing. Williams had both cars in the points to give Cosworth nine.

The scores by nationality of drivers are:

	Nation	Points	Scoring Drivers
1	Germany	413	5
2	Britain	359	2
3	Australia	202	1
4	Spain	200	3
5	Brazil	167	2
6	Poland	114	1
7	Japan	21	1
8	Russia	19	1
9	Italy	13	1
10	Switzerland	7	1

For the second race running, only the top-six nations scored points in the race. No changes in position, but Australia looks under pressure from Spain, although Pedro de la Rosa’s exit only leaves Buemi to back Alonso. In the race, Germany lead the scoring with Vettel, Rosberg, Sutil, and Hülkenberg all chipping in. Brazil was the only other nation with two scoring drivers, Barrichello and Massa.

This is the Nations’ Cup only counting the score of the highest driver in a race for each country. I have also decided to use 10-6-4-3-2-1, partly because I think it a better scoring regime, partly because it meant less work. Thus, for example, the McLaren 1-2 in China would give Britain 10 points for the win, nothing for second, and Rosberg’s third place would give Germany 4 points, with nothing for Vettel’s sixth place.

	Nation	Points
1	Britain	85
2	Germany	67
3	Australia	64
4	Spain	63
5	Brazil	38
6	Poland	22
7	Russia	2
8	Japan	1

Spain gain on Germany and Australia, but no changes in position. Only the top-five nations in the table scored (as in Italy).

This next table shows the standings based on qualification using current points.

1	Vettel	291
2	Webber	275
3	Alonso	180
4	Hamilton	176
5	Massa	124
6	Button	118
7	Rosberg	101
8	Kubica	97
9	Schumacher	45
10	Barrichello	37
11	Hülkenberg	22
12	Sutil	21
13	Liuzzi	10
14	Petrov	9
15	Kobayashi	5
16	de la Rosa	4

The only notable change is Fernando Alonso’s second pole-position in two races promoting him to third at Hamilton’s expense. Massa held onto fifth despite his Q1 woes. Barrichello marked his 300th GP with his best qualification of the season, starting sixth on the grid. Kobayashi qualified (just) in the top-ten for the fourth time this year, taking fifteenth off ex-F1 driver, de la Rosa.

These are the fastest-lap points with the number of outright fastest laps in brackets.

1	Webber	222	(2)
2	Alonso	187	(4)
3	Vettel	183	(3)
4	Hamilton	164	(3)
5	Kubica	122	(1)
6	Massa	110
7	Button	106	(1)
8	Rosberg	95
9	Schumacher	62
10	Petrov	59	(1)
11	Barrichello	46
12	Sutil	44
13	Buemi	38
14	Alguersuari	27
15	Liuzzi	16
16	Hülkenberg	14
17	Kobayashi	11
18	de la Rosa	9

The top-five in this category were Alonso, Vettel, Kubica, Schumacher, Webber. Alonso leaps into second-place, demoting Vettel and Hamilton a place each. Kubica takes fifth from Massa. Schumacher takes a place off Petrov, as Barrichello (9th fastest) does to Sutil.

Click here to see my Google documents laps-and-distance-completed spreadsheet.

See also RG’s Italy update for his championship for new teams.

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