What’s The Points – Italy Update

Previous entries:

    What’s The Points
    What’s The Points – China Update
    What’s The Points – Spain Update
    What’s The Points – Monaco Update
    What’s The Points – Turkey Update
    What’s The Points – Canada Update
    What’s The Points – Valencia Update
    What’s The Points – Great Britain Update
    What’s The Points – Germany Update
    What’s The Points – Hungary Update
    What’s The Points – Belgium Update

Below is a comparison of the World Championship positions for this year’s points (left), last year’s points-system (middle) and the older 10-6-4-3-2-1 approach (right). Ties are decided by countback.

1   Webber   187   Hamilton   75   Webber   60
2   Hamilton   182   Webber   74   Hamilton   59
3   Alonso   166   Alonso   67   Alonso   53
4      Button   165      Button   67      Button   49
5   Vettel   163   Vettel   66   Vettel   48
6   Massa   124   Massa   50   Massa   30
7   Rosberg   112   Rosberg   43   Kubica   22
8   Kubica   108   Kubica   42   Rosberg   22
9   Schumacher   46   Schumacher   15   Schumacher   7
10   Sutil   45   Sutil   15   Barrichello   5

Lewis Hamilton had a points-free weekend, but with Mark Webber’s sixth position not doing as much damage as might have been feared. Mark takes the ‘Championship lead, closes the lead under last year’s points, and ekes out a one-point lead under 10-6-5-4-3-2-1. Alonso and Button close up, Jenson maintaining fourth with Alonso moving up to third whilst Vettel drops to sixth, in all three points-systems. The battle for best-of-the-rest behind the top-three teams sees Rosberg benefit from his fifth-place over Kubica’s eighth, Nico moving up a place to seventh by this season’s points.

Formula One sees rapid car developement so the next table shows the points scored by the World Championship contenders over the last five events.

   Driver Score    Average
1   Webber    84      16·8   
2   Alonso   68   13·6   
3   Massa   57   11·4   
4   Hamilton   55   11·4   
5   Vettel   48   9·6   
6   Button   44   8·8   

If these mean averages of recent performances are multiplied by the five remaining races, added to the points the drivers currently have, and rounded to the nearest point, it gives this projection of the final tally.

1   Webber   271
2   Hamilton   237
3   Alonso   234
4   Vettel   211
5   Button   209
6   Massa   181

I feel (and hope with a small wager at Betfair on Hamilton to win the title) this predictor has become less indicative than before. Lewis has had two non-scores in the last five events, with a mechanical problem in Hungary and a driver-mistake/racing-incident today, yet probably has a good chance of getting five semi-decent to decent scores in the remaining rounds. Webber has made more mistakes this season, but been more consistant in the last five, albeit with less than great performances in Germany and Italy. I do not see Alonso spoiling the party, so it probably comes down to if Mark or Lewis can best score the points their respective cars are capable of in the last five races, and, Monza aside, Hamilton just seems to be better at that. Singapore should suit Red Bull better, Brazil has never been great for Hamilton, but how much will the new flexibility tests compromise RBR?

Before Monza, JB’s title-hopes looked bleak, with today’s second-place not enough to change that. After the latest result, it is now looking as if Sebastian Vettel is in the same boat, and will have to look to his years ahead in F1 for title-sucess.

These are the points if given to engines:

   Engine Score    Average
per Team
1   Mercedes    563      187·7   
2   Renault   477   238·5   
3   Ferrari   327   109·5   
4   Cosworth   47   11·8   

Ferrari made up some ground leading the scoring with 40, but with no help from customer teams. Mercedes had Button in second, Rosberg fifth, and Schumacher ninth, for 30 points. Renault had the RBRs 4th and 6th, with Kubica 8th, to total 24. Cosworth had Hulkenberg seventh and Barrichello tenth, to add seven to their score.

The scores by nationality of drivers are:

   Nation Points   Scoring
Drivers
1   Germany   382     5
2   Britain   347     2
3   Australia   187     1
4   Spain   175     2
5   Brazil   155     2
6   Poland   108     1
7   Japan   21     1
8   Russia   19     1
9   Italy   13     1
10   Switzerland   7     1

The top-six nations scored points this week. Germany had four drivers, Vettel, Rosberg, Hülkenberg, and Schumacher, in the points, adding up to thirty. Alonso scored 25 for Spain, Button 18 for Britain, Massa and Barrichello 16 for Brazil, Webber 8 for Australia, and Kubica 4 for Poland.

This is the Nations’ Cup only counting the score of the highest driver in a race for each country. I have also decided to use 10-6-4-3-2-1, partly because I think it a better scoring regime, partly because it meant less work. Thus, for example, the McLaren 1-2 in China would give Britain 10 points for the win, nothing for second, and Rosberg’s third place would give Germany 4 points, with nothing for Vettel’s sixth place.

   Nation Points  
1   Britain   82    
2   Germany   61    
3   Australia   60    
4   Spain   53    
5   Brazil   37    
6   Poland   22    
7   Russia   2    
8   Japan   1    

Vettel’s fourth-place against Webber’s sixth was enough for Germany to move up to second. Only the top-five nations in the table scored.

This next table shows the standings based on qualification using current points.

1   Vettel   273
2   Webber   265
3   Hamilton   161
4   Alonso   155
5   Massa   124
6   Button   106
7   Rosberg   95
8   Kubica   93
9   Schumacher   43
10   Barrichello   29
11   Hülkenberg   22
12   Sutil   21
13   Liuzzi   10
14   Petrov   9
15   de la Rosa   4
16   Kobayashi   4

Alonso scored his first pole of the year, his only other front-row start being in Germany. Jenson had not previously had a great time in qualification this season, but his first front-row for McLaren at Monza sees him move up, past Kubica and Rosberg, to sixth. Rosberg qualifying seventh saw him keep seventh in the table, as he overtakes Kubica, the Pole dropping two positions having only qualified ninth. Hülkenberg overtakes Sutil for eleventh, the Williams driver getting 2 points for eighth and Adrian not making Q3; unexpected at Monza with Force India supposed to have a slippery car and Williams using Cosworth engines.

These are the fastest-lap points with the number of outright fastest laps in brackets.

1   Webber   212   (2)
2   Vettel   165   (3)
3   Hamilton   163   (3)
4   Alonso   162   (3)
5   Massa   110  
6   Kubica   107   (1)
7   Button   100   (1)
8   Rosberg   91  
9   Petrov   59   (1)
10   Schumacher   50  
11   Sutil   44  
12   Barrichello   44  
13   Buemi   30  
14   Alguersuari   27  
15   Liuzzi   16  
16   Hülkenberg   14  
17   Kobayashi   11  
18   de la Rosa   9  

Fernando Alonso took the fastest lap. Surprisingly, Jenson only managed eighth fastest. Vettel took fourth fastest moving up to second with Hamilton failing to score any lap-time. The improving Hülkenberg managed seventh at Monza, moving two places up to 16th. Sutil scored a point for tenth, now ahead of Barrichello on countback, as Adrian came second in this category at Bahrain.

Click here to see my Google documents laps-and-distance-completed spreadsheet.

See also RG’s Italy update for his championship for new teams.

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