What’s The Points – Belgium Update

Previous entries:

    What’s The Points
    What’s The Points – China Update
    What’s The Points – Spain Update
    What’s The Points – Monaco Update
    What’s The Points – Turkey Update
    What’s The Points – Canada Update
    What’s The Points – Valencia Update
    What’s The Points – Great Britain Update
    What’s The Points – Germany Update
    What’s The Points – Hungary Update

Below is a comparison of the World Championship positions for this year’s points (left), last year’s points-system (middle) and the older 10-6-4-3-2-1 approach (right). Ties are decided by countback.

1   Hamilton   182   Hamilton   75   Webber   59
2   Webber   179   Webber   71   Hamilton   59
3   Vettel   151   Vettel   61   Vettel   45
4      Button   147      Button   59      Button   43
5   Alonso   141   Alonso   57   Alonso   43
6   Massa   109   Massa   44   Massa   26
7   Kubica   104   Kubica   41   Kubica   22
8   Rosberg   102   Rosberg   39   Rosberg   20
9   Sutil   45   Schumacher   15   Schumacher   7
10   Schumacher   44   Sutil   15   Barrichello   5

Hamilton’s Belgium victory gives him the lead in the real World Championship, and strengthens his lead by last season’s points. Under 10-6-4-3-2-1, Webber clings on at the top by countback, with his four wins to Lewis’s three more rewarded under that system. Lewis has four other podiums, Mark three. For all systems, Vettel, Button, Alonso, and Massa maintain their positions, with Kubica’s third-place promoting him to seventh at Rosberg’s expense. Sutil, who has finished eight times between fifth and tenth, overtakes Schumacher in this year’s points, and is tied with Barrichello on 5 under 10-6-4-3-2-1, but the Brazilian managed fourth-place at Valencia.

Obviously, the big news is three top contenders, Sebastian, Jenson, and Fernando, not scoring any points. Señor Alonso, before this result, gave himself a 50% chance of winning the title, with which the betting market violently disagreed. With this being such a close point-scoring year at the top, never mind the possibility of forthcoming FIA penalties, being 1·64 wins behind with six to go, I would put his chances near to zero. Sadly for Button, his hopes to defend his title now look bleak. Vettel even is now more than a win behind.

Formula One sees rapid car developement so the next table shows the points scored by the World Championship contenders over the last five events. Just in case, I include the Ferrari drivers.

   Driver Score    Average
1   Webber    76      15·2   
2   Hamilton   73   14·6   
3   Vettel   61   12·2   
4   Alonso   47   9·4   
5   Massa   42   8·4   
6   Button   41   8·2   

If these mean averages of recent performances are multiplied by the six remaining races, added to the points the drivers currently have, and rounded to the nearest point, it gives this projection of the final tally.

1   Webber   270
2   Hamilton   270
3   Vettel   224
4   Alonso   197
5   Button   196
6   Massa   159

I have put Webber before Hamilton as unrounded, Mark would be on 270·2, Lewis 269·6. It will easily happen that this title will be decided by just a single case of a reliability issue or an accident-not-the-fault-of-the-effected-driver, but that aside, I still feel the momentum is with Lewis. The Australian has messed up results this season whereas the Brit has only finished outside the top-six twice, due to a puncture at the Spanish GP and a gearbox malfunction in Hungary. Vettel needs to return to the consistency he showed in the first part of the season and hope for some luck.

I predicted after the German Ferrari 1-2 that the title-favourite had changed from Vettel to Hamilton, and the first time I did this calculation after Hungary, it predicted Lewis for the title. So I put my money where my mouth is, and put a modest bet last week on Hamilton to win the title. I use Betfair and was pleased to get 6·2 (about 5/1). He is now down to 2·98, and I am thinking of hoping he does well in Italy, and then consolidating (letting someone bet against me at lower odds, so I break even if Hamilton fails but get profit if he wins).

These are the points if given to engines:

   Engine Score    Average
per Team
1   Mercedes    533      177·7   
2   Renault   453   226·5   
3   Ferrari   287   95·7   
4   Cosworth   40   10·9   

Mercedes had the best week with 50 points, Hamilton winning, and Sutil, Rosberg, Schumacher, and Liuzzi all in the points. Renault scored 35 with Kubica and Petrov adding points to Webber’s second-place haul. Ferrari only had Massa in fourth, and Kobayashi eighth for 16. Since Cosworth failed to score, all the points-gaps widened.

The scores by nationality of drivers are:

   Nation Points   Scoring
Drivers
1   Germany   352     5
2   Britain   329     2
3   Australia   179     1
4   Spain   150     2
5   Brazil   139     2
6   Poland   104     1
7   Japan   21     1
8   Russia   19     1
9   Italy   13     1
10   Switzerland   7     1

Britain got 25 for the win, but Germany countered with Sutil, Rosberg and Schumacher fifth, sixth and seventh for 24 points. No other nation scored twice. The only change in position is Kobayashi’s four points for eighth moving Japan one place up to seventh, with Petrov only getting two for ninth (Russia were previously ahead on countback).

This is the Nations’ Cup only counting the score of the highest driver in a race for each country. I have also decided to use 10-6-4-3-2-1, partly because I think it a better scoring regime, partly because it meant less work. Thus, for example, the McLaren 1-2 in China would give Britain 10 points for the win, nothing for second, and Rosberg’s third place would give Germany 4 points, with nothing for Vettel’s sixth place.

   Nation Points  
1   Britain   74    
2   Australia   59    
3   Germany   58    
4   Spain   43    
5   Brazil   31    
6   Poland   22    
7   Russia   2    
8   Japan   1    

A bad race for Germany having to fall back on Sutil’s fifth-place, thus losing second to Australia. Spain, Russia and Japan did not score.

I remember that in Grand Prix International, at the end of the season they used to publish tables based on such as grid positions, fastest laps, and the order at half-distance in races. I have decided to do the first two, this next table being the standings based on qualification using current points.

1   Vettel   265
2   Webber   253
3   Hamilton   151
4   Alonso   130
5   Massa   109
6   Kubica   91
7   Rosberg   89
8   Button   88
9   Schumacher   43
10   Barrichello   28
11   Sutil   21
12   Hülkenberg   18
13   Liuzzi   10
14   Petrov   9
15   de la Rosa   4
16   Kobayashi   4

When I first did this table after Hungary, I was very surprised Button was behind Rosberg. Jenson qualifying fifth with Nico outside the top-ten puts Button within a point of Rosberg, but Kubica qualifying third means he jumps both of them. Webber on pole gained 13 points on his team-mate, with Vettel qualifying fourth.

These are the fastest-lap points with the number of outright fastest laps in brackets.

1   Webber   194   (2)
2   Hamilton   163   (3)
3   Vettel   153   (3)
4   Alonso   137   (2)
5   Massa   102  
6   Kubica   97   (1)
7   Button   96   (1)
8   Rosberg   76  
9   Petrov   57   (1)
10   Schumacher   50  
11   Barrichello   44  
12   Sutil   43  
13   Buemi   30  
14   Alguersuari   27  
15   Liuzzi   16  
16   Kobayashi   11  
17   de la Rosa   9  
18   Hülkenberg   8  

The top-five in fastest laps were the same order as the top-five in the race. Hamilton takes second place from Vettel, and Button falls two places to seventh.

See also RG’s Belgium update for his championship for new teams.

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