What’s The Points? – Hungary Update

Previous entries:

    What’s The Points
    What’s The Points – China Update
    What’s The Points – Spain Update
    What’s The Points – Monaco Update
    What’s The Points – Turkey Update
    What’s The Points – Canada Update
    What’s The Points – Valencia Update
    What’s The Points – Great Britain Update
    What’s The Points – Germany Update

Below is a comparison of the World Championship positions for this year’s points (left), last year’s points-system (middle) and the older 10-6-4-3-2-1 approach (right). Ties are decided by countback.

1   Webber   161   Hamilton   65   Webber   53
2   Hamilton   157   Webber   63   Hamilton   49
3   Vettel   151   Vettel   61   Vettel   45
4      Button   147      Button   59      Button   43
5   Alonso   141   Alonso   57   Alonso   43
6   Massa   97   Massa   39   Massa   23
7   Rosberg   94   Rosberg   36   Rosberg   19
8   Kubica   89   Kubica   35   Kubica   18
9   Schumacher   38   Schumacher   13   Schumacher   7
10   Sutil   35   Sutil   11   Barrichello   5

Webber has the strongest lead under the 10-6-4-3-2-1 system as that gives more reward for his four wins. He has the lead over Hamilton under this year’s points courtesy of the six points he gathered for 8th and 9th in the first two races of the season, with those low finishes scored proportionally more generously than by last year’s system. Eighth place this season pays 24% of win-points, last season it was only 10%; ninth place now gives 12% of a win but last season nothing. Alonso is 80% of a win behind the points-leaders under this and last year’s points, which lean towards rewarding consistency, but is a whole win behind under 10-6-4-3-2-1.

It was obviously a painful race for McLaren, very good for Red Bull, and good for Ferrari but realistically not good enough. It is probably Button that will enjoy his holiday least as eighth was barely better than Hamilton’s wash-out, and Lewis at least is still close to the points-leader, with Webber having a habit of putting in the occasional weak race-weekend.

Formula One sees rapid car developement so the next table shows the points scored by the World Championship contenders over the last five events. I have included Massa (just) as a title contender, but not Kubica or Rosberg, as at least the Brazilian is in a car that looks to have race-winning potential.

   Driver Score    Average
1   Hamilton    73      14·6   
2   Vettel   73   14·6   
3   Alonso   62   12·4   
4   Button   59   11·8   
5   Webber   58   11·6   
6   Massa   30   6·5   

If these mean averages of recent performances are multiplied by the seven remaining races, added to the points the drivers currently have, and rounded to the nearest point, it gives this projection of the final tally.

1   Hamilton   259
2   Vettel   253
3   Webber   242
4   Button   230
5   Alonso   228
6   Massa   139

Obviously, this is rough and ready, not perhaps reflecting Ferrari moving forward and McLaren dropping back as much as might be more relevent, but does show how difficult it will be to beat Lewis with his tenacious approach of grabbing all the points he can get, even if his car is not fastest. Jenson is starting to show sadness in his eyes at effectively being Lewis’s number two because Lewis keeps edging him, often with Button not far behind to mop up points other rivals will not get when McLaren have better races. Vettel will have Webber taking points off him, and although his run of unlikely reliability issues seems to have passed, has not been scoring as many points as he should have done recently. Sebastian’s best hope of overturning this unfavorable projection is getting results with a Ferrari or two, and sometimes his team-mate, between himself and Hamilton. For Fernando, the Ferrari improvement of recent times will probably prove to be too late in the season to make up the deficit, and for Massa, his title chances would have been on life-support to dead even had he been allowed to win in Germany. Both Ferrari drivers have lost too many points through non-performance issues when behind on pace to be within striking distance now they have found the extra speed.

After Valencia, I described Vettel as the title favourite although he was third, 12 points behind Hamilton and six behind Jenson, because I believed he would generally out-score them with quite a few races left to do so. After Ferrari’s re-emergence to do so well in Germany, I predicted that Lewis had become favourite, just as Button the year before had benefitted from his rivals taking points off each other. If this projection is re-calculated based on the scenario that Ferrari had not made this recovery, such that Vettel would have beaten Hamilton in Germany for the win, giving him a bigger points margin, and finished second in Hungary, then it would come out as predicting 284 points for Vettel and 271 for Hamilton. So another reason for Vettel to see red.

These are the points if given to engines:

   Engine Score    Average
per Team
1   Mercedes    483      161·7   
2   Renault   418   209·3   
3   Ferrari   271   90·3   
4   Cosworth   40   10·9   

An excellent week for Renault gaining 50 points with Petrov’s best finish adding to two Red Bulls on the podium. Mercedes only got 4 for Jenson’s eighth place, with Hamilton, both Mercedes cars, and both Force Indias failing to trouble the scoreboard. Ferrari had all four cars in the points for the first time, with both Saubers in the top-nine, totalling 38 points. Cosworth had both Williams in point-scoring positions getting nine.

The scores by nationality of drivers are:

   Nation Points   Scoring
Drivers
1   Germany   328     5
2   Britain   304     2
3   Australia   161     1
4   Spain   150     2
5   Brazil   127     2
6   Poland   89     1
7   Russia   17     1
8   Japan   17     1
9   Italy   12     1
10   Switzerland   7     1

With Australia getting 25 for Mark’s win, Spain getting 24 (Alonso/de la Rosa), and Germany 23 (Vettel/Hülkenberg), Britain, only with Jenson’s lowly 4 points, were the main loser, but do hold position. Brazil had 13 from Felipe and Rubens. Kobayashi added a couple to the Japanese account. Petrov, with his best finish of fifth, caused the only position-changes, moving Russia from ninth to seventh, edging just ahead of Japan on countback.

This is the Nations’ Cup only counting the score of the highest driver in a race for each country. I have also decided to use 10-6-4-3-2-1, partly because I think it a better scoring regime, partly because it meant less work. Thus, for example, the McLaren 1-2 in China would give Britain 10 points for the win, nothing for second, and Rosberg’s third place would give Germany 4 points, with nothing for Vettel’s sixth place.

   Nation Points  
1   Britain   64    
2   Germany   56    
3   Australia   53    
4   Spain   43    
5   Brazil   28    
6   Poland   18    
7   Russia   2    
8   Japan   1    

With Britain non-scoring, Germany reduced their deficit by 4. Australia added ten, Spain 6, Brazil 3, and Russia entered the table in 7th with 2 points from Hungary.

I remember that in Grand Prix International, at the end of the season they used to publish tables based on such as grid positions, fastest laps, and the order at half-distance in races. I have decided to do the first two, this next table being the standings based on qualification using current points.

1   Vettel   253
2   Webber   228
3   Hamilton   133
4   Alonso   129
5   Massa   101
6   Rosberg   89
7   Button   78
8   Kubica   76
9   Schumacher   43
10   Barrichello   22
11   Sutil   17
12   Hülkenberg   16
13   Liuzzi   10
14   Petrov   9
15   de la Rosa   4
16   Kobayashi   4

The drivers of STR and the new teams have failed to qualify top-ten this season. Only the RBR drivers and Kubica have made Q3 for every race.

It is hardly the shock of the century that the Red Bull drivers have under-performed in races compared to their qualifying record. The biggest surprise is Button being pushed out of the top-six by Rosberg. They have out-qualified the other six times each. Jenson’s wins in Australia and China came from 4th and 5th on the grids, with all other driver wins from higher starts. Four wins only this season have been from pole, four from qualifying second, and two from the third slot.

These are the fastest-lap points with the number of outright fastest laps in brackets.

1   Webber   176   (2)
2   Vettel   145   (3)
3   Hamilton   138   (2)
4   Alonso   133   (2)
5   Button   96   (1)
6   Massa   90  
7   Kubica   82   (1)
8   Rosberg   75  
9   Petrov   51   (1)
10   Schumacher   50  
11   Barrichello   44  
12   Sutil   33  
13   Buemi   30  
14   Alguersuari   25  
15   Liuzzi   16  
16   Kobayashi   11  
17   de la Rosa   9  
18   Hülkenberg   8  

As to be expected, these results are more random. All drivers except those of the new teams feature. No driver has been top-ten in all races.

Only at the opening race in Bahrain did the race-winner, Alonso, get fastest lap. Webber took pole and fastest lap in Malaysia, as did Vettel in Germany and Hungary.

See also RG’s Hungary update for his championship for new teams.

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3 Responses to “What’s The Points? – Hungary Update”

  1. Maverick Says:

    “He has the lead over Hamilton under this year’s points courtesy of the six points he gathered for 8th and 9th in the first two races of the season…”

    It’ll be rather disappointing if the World Championship is decided by points for an 8th and 9th place finish – so much for rewarding drivers going for the win!

  2. Pat W Says:

    Interesting stuff, thanks. If Red Bull can finish races they are looking good to catch Hamilton with either driver, maybe both. It’ll certainly be a close points race even if the individual races aren’t that close.

    As you may know, the TMR Game spreadsheets include the totals as if the championships were scored under the game’s points system.

    Here are the F1 points after Hungary:

    Mark Webber 409
    Lewis Hamilton 399
    Jenson Button 388
    Fernando Alonso 388
    Sebastian Vettel 384
    Felipe Massa 330
    Nico Rosberg 318
    Robert Kubica 306
    Michael Schumacher 256
    Rubens Barrichello 246

    Either I have made an error or the system has significantly hindered Vettel. I suspect I made an error.

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